In an effort to improve my data analysis skills within the field of Public Health, I am currently working on an analysis of healthcare access across three different counties in North Carolina. This initial analysis focuses on the ratio of primary care physicians to residents, a crucial aspect of understanding healthcare resource availability. The counties under scrutiny include Mecklenburg County, Anson County, and Stanly County, chosen deliberately from different tiers defined by the North Carolina Department of Commerce (County Distress Rankings (Tiers) | NC Commerce). Mecklenburg sits in Tier 3, offering a contrast to Cumberland County in Tier 1 and Guilford County in Tier 2. These tiers, determined by factors like unemployment rates, median household income, growth percentage, and property tax base per capita, set the stage for a nuanced examination of healthcare disparities. Tier three indicates the highest standing and tier one indicates the lowest.
The graph above illustrates the count of active Primary Care Physicians, utilizing data sourced from the Vital Statistics and Health dataset provided by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Acknowledging substantial variations in county sizes, as highlighted in the second graph, I opted to shift the focus toward examining the ratio of primary care physicians to residents. This choice offers a more equitable comparison, considering the difference in population size of the counties of interest. By emphasizing ratios over raw numbers, we gain a more nuanced understanding of healthcare accessibility in relation to the population size of each county.
As per the Healthy North Carolina 2030 goals set by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine, the optimal physician-to-population ratio stands at 1:1500. In the visual representation below, I’ve charted the actual physician-to-population ratios for the three examined counties. Accompanying this chart is a reference line, showcasing the target ratio proposed by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine.
Analyzing the data across Mecklenburg, Guilford, and Cumberland counties, a notable trend emerges. Mecklenburg and Guilford counties consistently surpass the ideal physician-to-population ratio. This aligns with expectations, considering their urban profiles, higher income potential, and developmental status, making them attractive destinations for physicians.
In contrast, Cumberland County experiences dips below the optimal ratio in specific years, notably in 2011, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. This pattern corresponds with Cumberland’s relatively rural character, where a scattering of towns and cities, led by Fayetteville, constitutes the majority of the population.
As the nation grapples with a primary care shortage, rural counties like Cumberland bear the brunt of the impact. Implementing technologies such as telemedicine and expanding the role of Nurse Practitioners and Physician Associates can serve as crucial measures to address healthcare disparities in these rural communities.
Recognizing the enduring significance of primary care physicians in public health, these professionals play a vital role in disease prevention and detection through routine check-ups. Moreover, they provide essential health education to patients and effectively manage chronic diseases. As we navigate the complexities of healthcare access, it becomes increasingly evident that sustaining a robust primary care infrastructure is indispensable for promoting the health of our communities.
Goals and Outcomes
Synthesizing Data with Context from Valid Sources: To enhance the depth of my analysis, I factored in the county tier rankings along with the physician ratio guidelines outlined by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine’s Healthy North Carolina 2030 initiative. This additional layer of information contributes valuable context to the examination, offering insights into the broader healthcare goals and standards set for the state.
Integrating Multiple Data Sources: I integrated data from both the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services and the US Census to formulate a comprehensive physician-to-population ratio. This step allowed for a more robust and nuanced analysis, providing a clearer picture of the healthcare landscape across the selected counties.
Creating Clear Visualizations
Questioning Data Validity: Examining the graphs of primary care physician counts across the three counties, I noticed a common pattern with a peak around 2015 or 2016. To ensure accuracy, I attempted to cross-verify this data using other sources reporting primary care physician numbers in North Carolina by county. Despite my efforts, I couldn’t find additional information or an explanation for the observed peak. However, I proceeded with the analysis, trusting the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services as the most reliable source for this data.
Dataset source: https://linc.osbm.nc.gov/
County Population source: https://www.census.gov/
North Carolina Healthy People 2030 Primary Care Goals: https://nciom.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Primary-Care-Workforce.pdf
Sydney Lash 